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The proponents of the recall of Governor Davis argued that the decisions that the governor made were the cause of California’s poor economy. Supporters of the recall focused on this issue and they were successful in removing Governor Davis. Is the governor the one to blame or was the poor state economy due to the poor national economy?

California’s economy accounts for approximately 13% of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since 1986, the US business cycle peaked in the third quarter of 1990 and then troughed in the first quarter of 1991. The economy grew until the first quarter of 2001 when it peaked again. The economy then contracted until the fourth quarter of 2001 where it troughed. During these periods, California has had higher peaks and lower valleys. In 1990, the US real GDP growth rate was 1.8% and California real GSP growth rate was 3.1%. Then in the following year, the US real GDP was –0.5% and the California real GSP –1.6%. The California economy did not recover as quickly as the nation's economy. In 1992 and 1993 California’s GSP continued to have negative growth, while the nation had growth of around 3%.

In 2000, the California economy had the strongest growth of real GSP that had been recorded from 1986 to 2001, 7.3%. The nation only had a growth of 3.7% of real GDP. The first quarter of 2001 was the peak in the national economy, and the fourth quarter was the trough of the economy. The real GDP growth for the Nation was 0.3% during 2001. While California’s growth of real GSP was 0.1%. This was not the worst growth that either economy had experienced.

In 2002, the nation’s economic recovery from the recession was similar to the recovery in 1992, after the 1991 recession. The GSP data for 2002 is not available at this time.

Governor Pete Wilson was elected as Governor in 1991 and served two four-year terms. For the first three years of Governor Wilson’s term, the California economy had negative a growth. While Governor Davis, Wilson’s successor, had strong growth in his first three years as governor.

If the proponent’s argument were sustainable then why did Governor Pete Wilson not get recalled in 1992 or 1993 when California’s economy failed to grow for three consecutive years? At this time the nation was experiencing normal growth. By looking at the business cycles, I do not believe that the decisions that the governor made caused the poor California Economy.

The poor decisions that Governor Davis made is one three arguments of the proponents. The other two are the energy crisis and the budget deficit. Neither of these are the fault of governor.

References Bureau of Economic Analysis
California Recall Election Results
Rescue California

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Copyright, Dustin Jensen, 2003.