What is MacroWeb?

In the 1990's, the population in Iron County increased by 65%.  This percentage increase in population was the greatest since 1900.  Over the same period, the population in Utah increased by only 29%.  I interviewed residents to find out why they thought the population of Iron County increased so dramatically.  The most common response was that various businesses moved into the west part of the county just preceding or during this time.  Another response was that SUU became a university in 1991, and since it is the largest employer, that could have fueled growth.  Some people mentioned immigration from California to Utah because of an economic downturn, and to get away from negative environmental factors there.

One of the stylized facts of growth theory states that "people move to places where their income will be higher."  Aggregate technology can increase income because it can increase output per worker. Consequently, people will typically move to places where there are higher levels of aggregate technology.  The technology that is relevant to Iron County during this time period is natural gas.  According to Questar, a natural gas pipeline was installed that reached Cedar City in 1987.  Prior to using natural gas, most people used electricity or a wood stove to heat their homes.  One resident said that her family was spending about $350 a month on electricity during the winter and they still had to use their wood stove.  Making natural gas available to Iron County is an example of an aggregate technological improvement because natural gas costs less than half as much as electricity.  Many of the large manufacturing facilities that moved in west of town during this time surely saw natural gas as an incentive.  The cost of living in Iron County decreased substantially because of natural gas, and nominal incomes rose as new manufacturing facilities provided more jobs.  Although residents cited other reasons for growth, they occurred after the introduction of natural gas.

Note that the introduction of this same technology may not result in the same population growth in other locations.  Cedar City gets cold, and these cold temperatures necessitate energy costs.  Since natural gas is well suited for heating, it follows that the more people that need low cost heat in an area, the more the area will have increased possibilities of growth due to the introduction of natural gas.  If you want to test this hypothesis, keep an eye on the growth rates of Brian Head and Panguitch, as they hooked up to natural gas around 2000.

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Copyright, Adam Miller, 2003.