This is a random list I put together in November 2002 (but didn't post publicly) of who I think might win
the "Nobel Prize" in economics over the next few years.
- Greg Mankiw
- Paul Romer
- Finn Kydland and Ed Prescott
- Robert Barro, Thomas Sargent, and Neil Wallace, maybe Bennett McCallum, maybe Robert Hall
- Lars Peter Hansen
- Clive W. J. Granger, Robert Engle (got the Nobel in 2003)
- Eugene Fama
- Stephen Ross
- Rudi Dornbusch (deceased)
- Arnold Harberger
- Hal Varian
- Hal White
- Christopher Sims
- Peter C.B. Phillips
- Soren Johansen
- Buzz Brock and Leonard Mirman
- Jean-Michel Grandmont
- Richard Day and Jess Benhabib
- John Taylor and Stanley Fischer
- Wayne Fuller and David Dickey
- Gregory Chow
- David Cass, Peter Diamond, Karl Shell
- Philip Cagan and Edmund Phelps
- George Borjas
- Ed Glaeser
- Tim Bollerslev
- Avinash Dixit and Elhanan Helpman
- David Hendry
- James Hamilton
Also, there is an award (the John Bates Clark Medal) made every two years to the best American economist
under the age of 40. Anyone who makes this list is a good bet to get a Nobel prize in the next 30 years.
- Matthew Rabin (01)
- Andrei Schliefer (99)
- Kevin Murphy (97)
- David Card (95)
- Lawrence Summers (93)
- Paul Krugman (91)
- David Kreps (89)
- Sandy Grossman (87)
- Jerry Hausmann (85)
- James Heckman (83) Nobel in 2000
- A. Michael Spence (81) Nobel in 2001
- Joe Stiglitz (79) Nobel in 2001
- Martin Feldstein (77)
- Dan McFadden (75) Nobel in 2000
- Franklin Fisher (73)
- Dale Jorgensen (71)
- Marc Nerlove (69)
- Gary Becker (67) Nobel in 1992
- Zvi Grilliches (65) deceased
- Hendrik Houthakker (63)
- Robert Solow (61) Nobel in 1986
- Lawrence Klein (59) Nobel in 1980
- Kenneth Arrow (57) Nobel in 1972
- James Tobin (55) Nobel in 1981
- No Award (53)
- Milton Friedman (51) Nobel in 1976
- Kenneth Boulding (49)
- Paul Samuelson (47) (Nobel in 1970)
Earlier (it has been discontinued now), they used to give out the Francis Walker Award every five years to
the best economist. I think all of these guys are dead now, so there are probably no more prizes here:
- Simon Kuznets (77) Nobel in 1971
- Theodore Schultz (72) Nobel in 1979
- Alvin Hansen (67)
- Jacob Viner (62)
- Frank Knight (57)
- John Maurice Clark (52)
- Wesley Clair Mitchell (47)